Educational purpose: This article explains concepts and risks. It is not individualized financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.
Market cycles are easier to study through observable variables than memorable slogans. Liquidity, leverage, positioning, issuance, adoption, and investor expectations interact over time.
Signals are contextual
No single indicator identifies a durable top or bottom. A useful process combines market breadth, funding conditions, realized volatility, credit stress, network activity, and valuation assumptions.
Build a repeatable process
Define position sizes, time horizon, invalidation points, liquidity needs, and rebalancing rules before volatility rises. A process is more robust than a prediction.